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For all the hoopla surrounding prediction markets and expectations that the industry will eat away at sportsbooks’ NFL handle this season, the old guard industry is expected to control nearly 80% of pro football wagers this year.

Eilers & Krejcik Gaming (EKG) estimates that bettors will plunk down $40.5 billion on the NFL this season through regulated channels. Traditional sportsbooks are projected to capture $31.7 billion of that total, compared to a handle analog of $8.4 billion for prediction markets—a 79% to 21% split in favor of legacy operators.

Handle analog is a metric used as a cleaner comparison between sportsbooks and prediction markets because the latter’s volume doesn’t compare evenly with sportsbook handle.

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On Wednesday the UK’s Advertising Standards Authority (ASA) ruled against Midnite following an investigation into a paid TikTok advertisement featuring an AI-generated character who appeared to be under the age of 25 and engaging in gambling activity. 

The ASA reviewed a clip posted to TikTok in July promoting Midnite, a Gibraltar-based online casino app. The clip displayed a young-looking man using the app, accompanied by the voiceover: “Another massive World Cup upset. Bet £10 on the big match and get £30 in free bets. Level up your World Cup with Midnite, get on it.”

According to the ASA’s Code for gambling advertising, anyone who “was, or seemed to be, under 25 years of age” must not be depicted gambling or playing a significant role in advertisements. 

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It finds that online gaming shows more documented terrorist financing activity than gambling, although proliferation financing risks remain limited across both sectors.

Cash, e-wallets, mobile money and virtual assets emerge as the payment methods most vulnerable to abuse. This is particularly true where operators use them to structure deposits below reporting thresholds. 

Giles Thomson, FATF president, said unregulated sectors risk becoming “attractive gateways for fraudsters, professional money launderers and organised criminal networks”. He called on governments to strengthen oversight, crack down on illegal and offshore operators and deepen public-private cooperation.