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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.

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“What is striking here is the level of activity that apparently failed to trigger effective intervention,” Williams says. “These were obvious indicators requiring further scrutiny, and it is difficult to understand why they did not result in more effective intervention.”

He adds that the recurring weakness is often not an absence of policies but a failure to ensure “technology, algorithms and operational processes actually work in practice”. Some of the QuinnBet issues followed a platform migration, underlining the need to retest controls whenever systems change.

As QuinnBet is also licensed in Gibraltar, Williams expects its regulator to consider the UK’s findings under the jurisdiction’s strengthened Gambling Act 2025. That would not necessarily require a second sanction, but Gibraltar must satisfy itself that any underlying weaknesses have been addressed, he says.

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On Thursday, the Dutch Gambling Authority (KSA) reported eight online gambling licences had been reissued as part of its five year-renewal plan for the sector.

This will enable them to continue legal operations in the Netherlands from 1 October 2026 through to 30 September 2031. 

It is the first time since the market was launched in 2021 that licences have come up for renewal and whomever is on the final list will indicate how many operators have decided not to remain in the market.