Taberna De Los Muertos

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In August, Cambodia’s state news agency, AKP, reported that authorities had inspected 195 licensed casinos nationwide as part of a broader anti-scam crackdown. This resulted in the revocation of 20 licences and the suspension of 29 others, with an additional 23 licences lapsing naturally. 

Touch Sokhak, deputy spokesperson of the Ministry of Interior, emphasised that the operation seeks to prevent Cambodia from becoming “a safe haven or money-laundering base for technology-related criminals”.

However, the sustained enforcement drive has already taken a toll on the wider Cambodian economy. In May, the government lowered its 2026 GDP growth forecast as construction, real estate and consumer spending absorb the short-term impact of the crackdown.

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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

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The court also dismissed the equal-treatment argument, noting that gaming machines are taxed by the municipality while casino taxation falls to Hesse.

Wiesbaden’s tax, set under local statute, applies to expenditure on gaming machines, and the city said the higher rate was part of its response to strained finances.

The decision is not yet legally binding, with a further opportunity to appeal the denial of ‘leave to appeal’ open to the applicants. This will be reviewed by the Federal Administrative Court of Leipzig.