Blazing Coins 20

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The president’s critical view of betting is on par with other candidates. Studies by the Workers’ Party (PT) indicate that three out of four Brazilians are against betting establishments. This is the president’s justification against the sector.

What the president didn’t address is the tax revenue from betting.

In 2025, Brazil collected almost BRL10 billion ($1.97 billion) in tax revenue from the licensed sector. In the first seven months of this year alone, BRL8.7 billion generated by the activity was delivered to public coffers. The Federal Revenue Service itself estimates that the sector should reach BRL16 billion in revenue during 2026.

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Sponsorship activities involving children and adolescents, schools, and youth sports categories are also prohibited. Betting companies will also be banned from associating their brand with campaigns or projects related to mental health, suicide prevention, financial education, treatment of gambling disorders, social assistance, prevention of over-indebtedness or protection of vulnerable families. 

Operators may not use data from individuals who have self-excluded, are undergoing treatment, or have requested to block marketing in order to attempt to reactivate them. Repeated or intrusive messages and offers directed at users who have reduced their gaming frequency, registered significant losses, triggered limits or shown signs of risky behaviour are also prohibited.

The text also bans exploiting situations of economic crisis, unemployment, debt, emotional distress, grief, anxiety, depression, loneliness, or other conditions of vulnerability to attract, retain or reactivate gamblers. 

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While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.

Bernstein estimates the global market for financial contracts will grow to $900 trillion by 2035, up from $700 trillion last year, and if prediction markets capture just 0.5% of that total, volume would increase by $4.7 trillion per year.