Diamonds Are Forever

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For poker collusion and bot use, recommended contractual provisions allow operators to redistribute illegitimate winnings to affected players. The guide noted that courts have validated such actions when supported by robust data.

The ANJ has called for operators to provide proof rather than act on suspicion alone. The guide outlined the types of evidence and “converging indicators” (faisceaux d’indices) that French courts have accepted in previous litigations, including IP addresses, device logs and connection timings.

Operators were encouraged to take several practical steps, including enhancing terms and conditions, maintaining robust evidence and uptaking technical standards.

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“The Commission’s approach to reporting may well create the inaccurate impression that the industry is inherently non-compliant,” he adds. A more balanced account might place failures alongside the majority of licensees that pass assessments or lead on customer wellbeing, although Waugh considers such a shift unlikely.

The “too easy to get a licence” argument doesn’t necessarily hold up to scrutiny, to be fair. Andrew Bentley, co-founder and CEO of regulatory technology startup LiSense, is one who rejects the suggestion.

“There are significant checks on individuals and businesses before a licence is granted,” he says. “The UK Gambling Commission has set out what it expects. If you want a licence in the UK, you need to meet those expectations.”

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A major advantage for traditional sportsbook operators is their ability to aggressively fund customer acquisition and retention bonuses. As EKG points out, prediction markets have “less ability to be generous with bonuses” because users trade against one another rather than against the house.

That creates a stark contrast during peak football season when traditional sportsbooks spend heavily on promotions. Offers ranging from $350 to $365 from major operators make the $25 to $50 promotional matches typically seen on prediction markets appear modest by comparison.

“That said, channel checks indicate prediction markets are spending heavily on digital marketing, including app stores and pay-per-click advertising, which could make our forecast look conservative by the end of the season,” EKG concluded.