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“Some of them [investors] that were looking at Japan were looking at a big IR licence or nothing. With Tokyo and Yokohama being out of the mix, maybe some weren’t as interested anymore and decided to sit back, and wait and see how regulation and licensing shake out.”

One concern for operators is “the short duration of licences and renewal of licences”, notes Leckert. For operators, the casino business licence is renewable every three years, while the IR development-plan authorisation runs for 10 years, in contrast to the 18-year IR licence term in the Philippines, for instance.

Limiting the duration of licence validity “puts the entire capital investment at risk”, says Klebanow. Further regulations, including limiting residents to 10 visits per month and requiring them to present a ‘My Number Card’ when gambling, further erodes project viability. “Ultimately, casino developers individually concluded that developing an IR was too risky, and they took their billions of dollars in potential capital investment and walked away,” observes Klebanow.

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“A jackpot engine is a rare product in that you can brand that engine and it will sit across all of your content,” Wilson says. “As an operator, you might have 50 different game suppliers. On every single game that you’re serving, you can show a branded jackpot.”

That is the gap Splash Tech solves: many operators already have strong game libraries, and some have proprietary content, but they lack a flexible jackpot layer that can sit across the full offering without requiring them to build and operate their own engine.

That supplier-agnostic design matters because operators do not organise their businesses around the interests of one studio. They assemble portfolios from multiple providers and need tools capable of working across the resulting patchwork. Splash Tech’s engine can also extend beyond slots to points of sale including sportsbook bet slips, lottery and bingo.

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Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.

While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.

In another encouraging non-sports sign, one of those operators notched just $2 million in commodities volume last year, but that figure surpassed $410 million in August alone and is approaching $600 million on a year-to-date basis.